charon » July 15th, 2020, 4:19 pm wrote:I have to admit I'm fairly intrigued by this. I couldn't possibly begin to do the mathematics but  does this stuff actually work?
I mean, if I threw 3 dice 120 times I'm pretty sure that two of them would add up to 10 a lot more than once. I could be wrong but I'd be very surprised if they didn't.
Or am I misunderstanding this completely?
BadgerJelly » 15 Jul 2020, 10:57 wrote:When I do twenty rolls I land between 2550% success rate. It seems to be around 3540% on average.
The odds for two dice is 1 in 6. Adding another dice would increase these odds.
BadgerJelly » July 15th, 2020, 9:57 am wrote:charon » July 15th, 2020, 4:19 pm wrote:I have to admit I'm fairly intrigued by this. I couldn't possibly begin to do the mathematics but  does this stuff actually work?
I mean, if I threw 3 dice 120 times I'm pretty sure that two of them would add up to 10 a lot more than once. I could be wrong but I'd be very surprised if they didn't.
Or am I misunderstanding this completely?
It’s certainly more likely than 1 in 120!
When I do twenty rolls I land between 2550% success rate. It seems to be around 3540% on average.
The odds for two dice is 1 in 6. Adding another dice would increase these odds.
charon » 15 Jul 2020, 15:26 wrote:So are we saying that the odds arrived at by the maths calculation aren't really true or realistic? Or are the calculations wrong? Or it doesn't really matter?
TheVat wrote:Hint: which die has which number (of the ten making pair) is immaterial. Order does not change value.
(and remember P1 already has eliminated all rolls of a 1,2, or 3, since they never yield a 10 pair, so those rolls are already out of the picture)
To get P2:
Combinations producing ten: 55, 64
Combinations not: 54, 44, 66, 65,
So: 2 combinations out of a total of 6 = .33
(if order matters, then we have:
55, 64, 46
54, 45, 44, 66, 65, 56. ....
But, as you see, the percent is unchanged, because you have
3 combinations out of a total of 9 = .33 = no different)

TheVat » 17 Jul 2020, 02:30 wrote:Am I nuts, or is that last bit about doubling chances intuitive?
doogles » 18 Jul 2020, 09:08 wrote:[b]But the numbers 36, 25 and 16 do not come up anywhere. Could that sequence be just a coincidence BurtJordan?
doogles » 18 Jul 2020, 09:08 wrote:A third throw of 1s will account for 6 collections with 10+ (bottom right corner 6 cells) = 6
A third throw of 2s will account for 6 collections with 10+ (same 6 cells) = 6
A third throw of 3s will account for 6 collections with 10+ (same 6 cells) = 6

doogles » 20 Jul 2020, 23:56 wrote:Whoops! I just went for a walk and my subconscious was still crunching numbers.
I just realised that the '0s' weren't zeros but were actually hits on the relevant numbers.
Brilliant!
He has hit all 77 of them.

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